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The situation isn’t much better in the toss-up Michigan 7th, which hasn’t been polled since February. Lean and toss-up House races by amount of polling according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate poll weights, as of Oct. Lots of close House races are underpolled
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But four of the closest districts - those that are “toss-ups” or “lean” toward one party - have seen no polling at all. That’s pretty good at first glance thanks to efforts like the New York Times Upshot and Siena College’s live polling project. Turning our attention to the House of Representatives, we’ve collected 432 polls covering 142 districts. 6, which will send the election into overtime. Really, we’re in the most desperate need of polling in the special election in Mississippi, but that’s kind of a special case: It’s possible that no candidate will get a majority of the vote there on Nov. Instead, pollsters should try polling North Dakota (an aggregate poll weight of 2.39) or Montana (4.06). Ted Cruz has a 4 in 5 chance of victory). And you can’t shake a stick on Twitter without hitting someone complaining about how overpolled Texas is, especially given that the campaign there is not particularly suspenseful (Republican Sen. 22Īs you can see, we really don’t need this much data from Florida, where the aggregate poll weight is 13.13. Likely, lean and toss-up Senate races by amount of polling according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate poll weights, as of Oct. Here are the poll weights for this year’s competitive 3 Senate races. If you sum up all the poll weights for a race, you get an overall number that tells you just how robust the polling is. It works a little something like this: Based on its recency, sample size, quality of the pollster, etc., each poll used in our forecast is assigned a weight - a coefficient where 1.00 is average. If we really want to understand the scale of polling disparities between the two races (and other competitive races in the Senate), we can be even more sophisticated and compare them by looking at the poll weights used by our model. But in North Dakota - whose Senate seat is just as competitive as Florida’s - we had only eight polls of the matchup between incumbent Democratic Sen. Senate race in Florida between incumbent Democratic Sen. As of Monday afternoon, 2 we had collected 52 polls of the U.S. But if we just look at places that our model considers to be competitive, some get all the polling love, while several others are woefully under-surveyed. Of course, we don’t need polls everywhere many states and districts are safe for one party or the other. Even at this late stage in the election cycle, many states and districts - even potentially decisive ones - have seen little to no polling, which forces our model to lean on other factors like an area’s fundamentals, possibly missing sentiments stirring on the ground. What fuels this wide range of outcomes? A big part of it is lack of data. And in the House, there’s an 80 percent chance that Democratic gains will be somewhere between 20 and 61 seats - that’s a big range! In the Senate, our 80-percent confidence interval spans everything from Democrats picking up two seats to Republicans picking up three. But remember, there remains plenty of uncertainty in our forecast, so you should brace for a variety of outcomes. 1 In the Senate, things look less promising for Democrats: Republicans have a 4 in 5 chance (81 percent) of holding on. The Classic version of our forecast currently gives the party a 6 in 7 chance (86 percent) to take control. It feels like every time you hit “refresh,” Democrats’ prospects in the House tick up.
#Coin tick version 2.17 update#
Welcome to our Election Update for Tuesday, Oct.